Liver stiffness-based model predicts hepatic venous pressure gradient in patients with liver disease

Abstract

Background: The aim was to develop a model to predict clinically significant portal hypertension, hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) ≥10 mmHg using pre-operative noninvasive makers.

Methods: Patients who have been programmed for liver resection/transplantation were enrolled prospectively. Preoperative liver stiffness measurement (LSM), liver function test (LFT), and intraoperative HVPG were assessed. A probability score model to predict HVPG≥10 mmHg called HVPG₁₀ score was developed and validated.

Results: A total of 161 patients [66% men, median age of 63 years] were recruited for the study. Median LSM, and HVPG were 9.5 kPa, and 5 mmHg respectively. HVPG₁₀ score was developed using independent predictors of HVPG≥10 mmHg in the training set were LSM, total bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, and international normalized ratio. Area under receiver operating curve of HVPG₁₀ score in the training and validation sets were 0.91 and 0.93 respectively with a cutoff of 15. In the overall cohort, HVPG₁₀ score≥15 had 83% accuracy, 90% sensitivity, 81% specificity and 96% negative predictive value in predicting HVPG≥10 mmHg.

Conclusion: HVPG₁₀ score is an easy-to-use noninvasive continuous scale tool to rule out clinically significant portal hypertension in >95% patients with chronic liver disease.