Adjusting the intermediate input sources for global carbon emission reduction: An input-output optimization model

Abstract

The domestic industrial structure optimization for carbon emission reduction usually causes carbon transfer to other countries, while the global industrial structure adjustment would possibly lead to the unbalance of regional economy development. Based on the previous studies, this paper built an intermediate input source optimization model to reduce the global carbon emissions by adjusting the international input sources of countries (regions). The results showed that the proposed model could effectively realize the goals of global carbon emission reduction and economic development. After optimization, the requirements for the inputs from some sectors would significantly decrease, such as the materials in China, while the requirements for the inputs from some sectors would significantly increase, such as energy in the EU countries. The results also showed that the important sectors in the domestic industrial structures were more sensitive to the global intermediate input source adjustment. Furthermore, the global input source changes would indirectly improve the industrial structures of some countries including China, India and Russia. Our work suggested that countries should further promote the technology advantages of some important sectors to avoid the probable industrial risks bought by the global actions toward carbon neutrality.

Keywords: Global carbon reduction; Input sources; Intermediate goods; Multi-objective optimization model; Multi-regional input-output analysis.