A hybrid approach for risk stratification and predictive modelling of 30-days unplanned readmission of comorbid patients with diabetes

Abstract

Objectives: When comorbid patients with diabetes have 30-days Unplanned Readmission (URA), they attract more burdens to the healthcare system due to increased cost of treatment, insurance penalties to hospitals, and unavailable bed spaces for new patients. This paper, therefore, aims to develop a risk stratification and a predictive model for identifying patients at various risk severities of 30-days URA.

Methods: Patients records of comorbid patients with diabetes treated with different medications were collected from different hospitals and analysed with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Multivariate Logistic Regression (MLR) to determine the probability of 30-days URA, which is classified into very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The risk classes are later modelled using ANOVA feature selection to identify the optimal predictors and the best random forest (RF) hyperparameters for 30-days URA risk stratification. Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) was used to balance the risk classes while employing a10-fold cross-validation.

Results: After analysing 17,933 episodes of comorbid diabetes patients' treatment, 10.71% are identified to have 30-days URA with 61.95% of patients at moderate risk, 35.5% at low risk, 2.25% at very low risk, 0.37% at high risk, and 0.08% at very high risk. The predictive accuracy of RF is: - recall: 0.947 ± 0.035, precision: 0.951 ± 0.033, F1-score: 0.947 ± 0.035, AUC: 0.994 ± 0.007 and Average Precision (AP) of 0.99. The predictive accuracies of the risk classes measured with F1-score are: - very low: 0.985 ± 0.019, low risk: 0.871 ± 0.079, moderate: 0.881 ± 0.093, high: 0.999 ± 0.003, and very high: 1.000 ± 0.00.

Conclusion: This study identified the risk severity of comorbid patients with diabetes treated with different medications, making it easier to identify those that will be prioritized on hospitalization to minimize 30-days URA. By relying on the technique developed, vulnerable patients to 30-days URA can be given better post-discharge monitoring to build critical self-management skills that will minimize the cost of diabetes care and improve the quality of life.

Keywords: ANOVA; Comorbid diabetes; Medication therapy; Multivariate logistic regression; Principal component analysis; Random forest; Risk stratification.