The thrombodynamic ratio as a predictor of 28-day mortality in sepsis patients

Abstract

Background: The thrombodynamic ratio (TDR) as a composite thromboelastography (TEG) parameter, has been proven to be valuable in multiple diseases. However, the association between TDR and mortality in sepsis has not been studied.

Methods: One hundred forty-one patients were enrolled in this retrospectively study. TEG was performed immediately at admission. Two cox proportional hazards models were developed for the prediction of 28-day mortality. The C statistic, continuous net reclassification index (cNRI) and integrated discriminatory index (IDI) were calculated to compare the discrimination performance of clinical models with and without the TDR value. The integrated calibration index (ICI) and E50 were calculated to compare the calibration.

Results: Patients with lower TDR were more likely to have organ impairments and increased 28-day mortality. The TDR value improved discrimination performance in both Model 1 (C statistic, 0.745 vs 0.735; cNRI 19.4%, p = 0.044; IDI 5.6%, p = 0.012) and Model 2 (C statistic, 0.761 vs 0.751; IDI, 5.1%, p = 0.012). Compared to the calibration curve of Model 1 without TDR, addition of TDR displayed better calibration (ICI, 0.023; E50, 0.021).

Conclusion: TDR value significantly predicts 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis and could improve the discrimination and calibration performance of clinical prediction models.

Keywords: Calibration; Discrimination; Mortality; Sepsis; Thrombodynamic ratio.