Generic approach for mathematical model of multi-strain pandemics

PLoS One. 2022 Apr 28;17(4):e0260683. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260683. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

Multi-strain pandemics have emerged as a major concern. We introduce a new model for assessing the connection between multi-strain pandemics and mortality rate, basic reproduction number, and maximum infected individuals. The proposed model provides a general mathematical approach for representing multi-strain pandemics, generalizing for an arbitrary number of strains. We show that the proposed model fits well with epidemiological historical world health data over a long time period. From a theoretical point of view, we show that the increasing number of strains increases logarithmically the maximum number of infected individuals and the mean mortality rate. Moreover, the mean basic reproduction number is statistically identical to the single, most aggressive pandemic strain for multi-strain pandemics.

MeSH terms

  • Basic Reproduction Number
  • Global Health
  • Humans
  • Influenza, Human* / epidemiology
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pandemics*

Grants and funding

The authors received no specific funding for this work.