Systematic assessment of the development and recovery characteristics of hydrological drought in a semi-arid area

Abstract

Studies have documented the significant effect of various factors on hydrological drought events. However, few studies have quantified drought's development and recovery process under environmental changes. This study focused on identifying hydrological drought's development and recovery characteristics and their potential causes in a typical semi-arid area. The Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) was used as a metric for hydrological droughts, while the run theory was applied to identify the development and recovery processes of droughts. Changes in observed (human disturbed scenario) and simulated (natural scenario) droughts by employing the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model were also investigated from 1970 to 2016. The "simulated-observed" approach was used to assess the impacts of human regulations on hydrological drought development and recovery characteristics. Results showed that hydrological droughts occurred mainly during 1980-1990 and 2000-2016. In the natural condition, drought duration and intensity were higher, while lower severity in the drought recovery stage than development stage was observed. The drainage characteristics of the basin played the most critical role in the development and recovery characteristics of drought, which were also influenced by climatic conditions. Human activities had exacerbated recent natural hydrological drought. When considering the contribution of human activities, the reservoir operation was the dominant anthropic factor affected the development and recovery process of drought in the study area. Under the effects of reservoir regulation, long-duration hydrological droughts became rare. Moreover, the recovery ability of drought had been weakened. The effects of the reservoir were progressively crucial gradually. Although the water got from the river by the reservoir had been reduced, the negative impact on aggravating drought remains stronger than the reservoir was initially constructed. The results of our study will help improve the optimal management of reservoirs in semi-arid areas and enhance drought early warning and forecasting system.

Keywords: Development and recovery; Human activities; Hydrological drought; Reservoir regulation.