A partial least squares-path model of causality among environmental deterioration indicators in the dry period of Paraopeba River after the rupture of B1 tailings dam in Brumadinho (Minas Gerais, Brazil)

Abstract

This study investigated the collapse of B1 mine-tailings dam that occurred in 25 January 2019 and severely affected the Brumadinho region (Minas Gerais state, Brazil) socially, economically and environmentally. As regards water resources, the event impacted the Paraopeba River in the first 155.3 km counted from the dam site, meaning nearly half the main water course downstream of B1. In the impacted sector, high concentrations of tailings-related Al, Fe, Mn, P in river sediment-tailings mixtures and water were detected, as well as changes to the reflectance of riparian forests. In the river water, the metal concentrations raised significantly above safe levels. For caution, the water management authorities declared immediate suspension of Paraopeba River as drinking water source to the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte (6 million people), irrespective of representing nearly 30% of all supply. In this study, the main purpose was to assess potential links between tailings distribution, river water composition and reflectance of forest vegetation, which worked out as latent variables in regression models. The latent variables were represented by numerous physical and chemical parameters, measured 4 times in 22 sites during the dry period of 2019. The modeling results suggested the release of aluminum and phosphorus from sand fractions in the mine tailings as major cause of water contamination. The NDVI changes were interpreted as environmental deterioration. Changes in redox potential may have raised manganese concentrations in surface water further affecting the forest NDVI. Distance from the B1 dam and dissolved calcium appear to attenuate deterioration. Overall, the regressions allowed robust prognoses of environmental deterioration in the Paraopeba River under low flow conditions. More importantly, they can be transposed to similar dam ruptures helping environmental authorities to decide upon measures that can bring the affected rivers to pre-rupture conditions.

Keywords: Brumadinho (Brazil); Dam rupture; Environmental degradation; Partial least squares-path modeling; Tailings distribution; Water quality.