The risk of ship-bridge collisions should be evaluated using advanced models to consider different anti-collision and bridge-protection measures. This study aimed to propose a method to evaluate the effectiveness of active and passive safety measures in preventing ship-bridge collision. A novel ship-bridge collision probability formulation taking into consideration different safety measures was proposed. The model was applied at Jintang Bridge in China where the surrounding vessel traffic is ultra-crowded. We calculated the collision probability between the bridge and passing traffic using automatic identification system (AIS) data, Monte Carlo simulation, and Bayesian networks. Results under four different safety measures (i.e., active measures, passive measures, both measures and none) were analyzed and compared. The analysis concluded that both active and passive safety measures are effective in reducing the ship-bridge collision probability. Active measures, if deployed properly, can provide protection at an equivalent level than passive measures against collision risks. However, passive measures, such as setting arresting cables, are necessary in cases where the response time of the active measures is long. The proposed method and the results obtained from the case study may be useful for robust and systematic effectiveness evaluation of safety measures in other cases worldwide.
Keywords: AIS data; Bayesian networks; Monte Carlo simulation; safety measure; ship–bridge collision prevention.