Long-term predictors of success in water polo are rarely reported. This study aimed to evaluate the position-specific validity of the swimming and anthropometric/body build tests on the prediction of the long-term success of male water polo players. The participants were 85 top-level players observed at baseline (junior level, when they were 17-18 years of age; 35 centers and 50 perimeter players) in tests of swimming capacities (15 m water polo sprint, 25 m sprint, and 100 and 400 m freestyle swimming) and anthropometric/body build indices (body mass, body height, arm span, body mass index, and body fat percentage). Over a period of 10 years, participants' senior-level success was prospectively observed. Multinomial logistic regression with three levels of criteria (high achievement, medium achievement, and low achievement at the senior level) was applied to identify the predictive validity of the swimming and anthropometric/body build indices. For the total sample (not dividing perimeter from center players), all observed swimming capacities, body height, and arm span were significantly associated with success, with more successful players being taller, with a longer arm span, and superior swimming capacities. Body height and 100 m freestyle swimming were significant predictors of success among centers. Achievement in 100 and 400 m freestyle swimming, body height, and a lower percentage of body fat were correlated with higher senior-level performance in perimeter players. The results showed better validity of the anaerobic-lactate and aerobic swimming tests than sprint swimming in predicting the long-term achievement of male water polo players. Differences in the influence of swimming capacities and body-build indices on senior-level success between observed playing positions are related to differences in game duties, playing time, and consequent metabolic demands.
Keywords: generic tests; performance; prediction; sport-specific tests; success.