Background: Previous studies have shown that loss of progesterone receptor (PR) in endometrial cancer (EC) is associated with poor outcomes. Evaluating lymph node metastasis (LNM) is essential, especially before surgical staging. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of PR expression and other clinicopathological parameters in LNM and to develop a prediction model. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated endometrioid-type EC patients treated with staging surgery between January 2015 and March 2020. We analyzed PR status using immunohistochemical staining, and the expression was quantified using the H-score. We identified optimal cut-off values of H-score and CA125 for predicting LNM using receiver operating characteristic curves, and used stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify independent predictors. A nomogram for predicting LNM was constructed and validated using bootstrap resampling. Results: Of the 310 patients evaluated, the optimal cut-off values of PR H-score and CA125 were 162.5 (AUC 0.670, p = 0.001) and 40 U/mL (AUC 0.739, p < 0.001), respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that CA125 ≥ 40 U/mL (OR: 8.03; 95% CI: 3.44−18.77), PR H-score < 162.5 (OR: 5.22; 95% CI: 1.87−14.60), and tumor grade 2/3 (OR: 3.25; 95% CI: 1.33−7.91) were independent predictors. These three variables were incorporated into a nomogram, which showed effective discrimination with a concordance index of 0.829. Calibration curves for the probability of LNM showed optimal agreement between the probability as predicted by the nomogram and the actual probability. Our model gave a negative predictive value and a negative likelihood ratio of 98.4% and 0.14, respectively. Conclusions: PR H-score along with tumor grade and CA125 are helpful to predict LNM. In addition, our nomogram can aid in decision making with regard to lymphadenectomy in endometrioid-type EC.
Keywords: CA125; endometrial cancer; grade; lymph node metastasis; progesterone receptor immunohistochemical staining.