Quantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world

PLoS One. 2022 Apr 21;17(4):e0267128. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0267128. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) has spread to many countries in Africa, Europe and Asia in the past decades. However, the potential geographic extent of ASF infection is unknown. Here we combined a modeling framework with the assembled contemporary records of ASF cases and multiple covariates to predict the risk distribution of ASF at a global scale. Local spatial variations in ASF risk derived from domestic pigs is influenced strongly by livestock factors, while the risk of having ASF in wild boars is mainly associated with natural habitat covariates. The risk maps show that ASF is to be ubiquitous in many areas, with a higher risk in areas in the northern hemisphere. Nearly half of the world's domestic pigs (1.388 billion) are in the high-risk zones. Our results provide a better understanding of the potential distribution beyond the current geographical scope of the disease.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • African Swine Fever Virus*
  • African Swine Fever* / epidemiology
  • Animals
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • Risk Factors
  • Sus scrofa
  • Swine

Grants and funding

This research is supported and funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA19040305). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.