Superspreading potential of COVID-19 outbreak seeded by Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 in Hong Kong

Zihao Guo; Shi Zhao; Shui Shan Lee; Chris Ka Pun Mok; Ngai Sze Wong; Jingxuan Wang; Katherine Min Jia; Maggie Haitian Wang; Carrie Ho Kwan Yam; Tsz Yu Chow; Ka Chun Chong; Eng Kiong Yeoh

doi:10.1093/jtm/taac049

Superspreading potential of COVID-19 outbreak seeded by Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 in Hong Kong

J Travel Med. 2022 Sep 17;29(6):taac049. doi: 10.1093/jtm/taac049.

Authors

Zihao Guo¹, Shi Zhao¹, Shui Shan Lee^{1

2}, Chris Ka Pun Mok^{1

3}, Ngai Sze Wong^{1

2}, Jingxuan Wang¹, Katherine Min Jia⁴, Maggie Haitian Wang¹, Carrie Ho Kwan Yam^{1

5}, Tsz Yu Chow^{1

5}, Ka Chun Chong^{1

5}, Eng Kiong Yeoh^{1

5}

Affiliations

¹ The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China.
² Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China.
³ Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
⁴ Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States.
⁵ Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China.

Abstract

Using two early transmission chains in Hong Kong, the estimated R and k were 1.34 (95%CrI: 0.94-2.19) and 0.33 (95%CrI: 0.17-0.62) respectively, inferring 20.3% (95%CrI: 12.7%-29.6%) cases were responsible for 80% of the transmissions of the Omicron epidemic. Compared with Omicron BA.1, Omicron BA.2 had a greater superspreading potential.

Keywords: Omicron variants; SARS-CoV-2; superspreading events; transmission heterogeneity.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

COVID-19*
Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
Hong Kong / epidemiology
Humans
SARS-CoV-2*

Supplementary concepts

SARS-CoV-2 variants