The quantity-quality transition in the value of expanding wind and solar power generation

Enrico G A Antonini; Tyler H Ruggles; David J Farnham; Ken Caldeira

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2022.104140

The quantity-quality transition in the value of expanding wind and solar power generation

iScience. 2022 Mar 22;25(4):104140. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104140. eCollection 2022 Apr 15.

Authors

Enrico G A Antonini¹, Tyler H Ruggles¹, David J Farnham¹, Ken Caldeira^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Carnegie Institution for Science, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
² Breakthrough Energy, Kirkland, WA 98033, USA.

Abstract

Wind and solar photovoltaic generators are projected to play important roles in achieving a net-zero-carbon electricity system that meets current and future energy needs. Here, we show potential advantages of long-term site planning of wind and solar power plants in deeply decarbonized electricity systems using a macro-scale energy model. With weak carbon emission constraints and substantial amounts of flexible electricity sources on the grid (e.g., dispatchable power), relatively high value is placed on sites with high capacity factors because the added wind or solar capacity can efficiently substitute for running natural gas power plants. With strict carbon emission constraints, relatively high value is placed on sites with high correlation with residual demand because resource complementarity can efficiently compensate for lower system flexibility. Our results suggest that decisions regarding long-term wind and solar farm siting may benefit from consideration of the spatial and temporal evolution of mismatches in electricity demand and generation capacity.

Keywords: Energy flexibility; Energy policy; Energy resources; Energy sustainability.