Discrimination and calibration of a prediction model for mortality is decreased in secondary transferred patients: a validation in the TraumaRegister DGU

Abstract

Introduction: The Revised Injury Severity Classification II (RISC II) score represents a data-derived score that aims to predict mortality in severely injured patients. The aim of this study was to assess the discrimination and calibration of RISC II in secondary transferred polytrauma patients.

Methods: This study was performed on the multicentre database of the TraumaRegister DGU. Inclusion criteria included Injury Severity Score (ISS)≥9 points and complete demographic data. Exclusion criteria included patients with 'do not resuscitate' orders or late transfers (>24 hours after initial trauma). Patients were stratified based on way of admission into patients transferred to a European trauma centre after initial treatment in another hospital (group Tr) and primary admitted patients who were not transferred out (group P). The RISC II score was calculated within each group at admission after secondary transfer (group Tr) and at primary admission (group P) and compared with the observed mortality rate. The calibration and discrimination of prediction were analysed.

Results: Group P included 116 112 (91%) patients and group Tr included 11 604 (9%) patients. The study population was predominantly male (n=86 280, 70.1%), had a mean age of 53.2 years and a mean ISS of 20.7 points. Patients in group Tr were marginally older (54 years vs 52 years) and a had slightly higher ISS (21.5 points vs 20.1 points). Median time from accident site to hospital admission was 60 min in group P and 241 min (4 hours) in group Tr. Observed and predicted mortality based on RISC II were nearly identical in group P (10.9% and 11.0%, respectively) but predicted mortality was worse (13.4%) than observed mortality (11.1%) in group Tr.

Conclusion: The way of admission alters the calibration of prediction models for mortality in polytrauma patients. Mortality prediction in secondary transferred polytrauma patients should be calculated separately from primary admitted polytrauma patients.

Keywords: risk management; trauma management.