How will the dual structural effects, represented by industrial structure and energy structure, affect the future correlation between economic growth and CO2 emissions? Taking Jilin Province as an example, this study explores the dynamic driving mechanism of dual structural effects on the correlation between economic growth and CO2 emissions by innovatively building an integrated simulation model from 1995 to 2015 and setting different scenarios from 2016 to 2050. Correspondingly, the concept of marginal utility and the method of variance decomposition analysis are introduced to reveal the mechanism. The results show that the energy structure is different while the industrial structure tends to be similar when CO2 emissions reach the peak under different scenarios. The slower the dual structure adjustment, the more significant the upward trend appears before the peak. The contribution of the dual structural effects to CO2 emissions caused by unit GDP growth is basically the same in peak year. With the transformation of socio-economy, the positive driving effect of the industrial structure will gradually weaken, while the negative driving effect of the energy structure will gradually increase. The methods and results presented can provide insights into sensible trade-offs of CO2 emissions and economic growth in different countries/regions during structural transitions.
Keywords: CO2 emissions; driving mechanism; dual structural effects; economic growth; marginal utility; transformation region.