Oral submucous fibrosis (OSF) is a chronic progressive condition affecting the oral cavity, oropharynx and upper third of the oesophagus. It is a potentially malignant disorder. The authors collated and analysed the existing literature to establish the overall malignant transformation rate (MTR). A retrospective analysis of medical and dental scientific literature using online indexed databases was conducted for the period 1956 to 2021. The quality of the enrolled studies was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). A meta-analysis using a random effects model of a single proportion was performed along with statistical tests for heterogeneity. The overall proportion of malignancy across all studies was 0.06 (95% CI, 0.02-0.10), indicating an overall 6% risk of malignant transformation across all studies and cohorts. Sub-group analyses revealed strong differences in proportion of malignancy according to ethnicity/cohort; Chinese = 0.02 (95% CI 0.01-0.02), Taiwanese = 0.06 (95% CI, 0.03-0.10), Indian = 0.08 (95% CI, 0.03-0.14) and Pakistani = 0.27 (95% CI 0.25-0.29). Overall, the MTR was 6%; however, wide heterogeneity of the included studies was noted. Geographic variations in MTR were noted but were not statistically significant. Further studies are required to analyse the difference between cohort groups.
Keywords: areca nut; betel nut; malignant transformation rate; oral cancer; oral potentially malignant disorders; oral squamous cell carcinoma; oral submucous fibrosis.