Associations between temperature and Ross river virus infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological evidence

Yohannes Tefera Damtew; Michael Tong; Blesson Mathew Varghese; Alana Hansen; Jingwen Liu; Keith Dear; Ying Zhang; Geoffrey Morgan; Tim Driscoll; Tony Capon; Peng Bi

doi:10.1016/j.actatropica.2022.106454

Associations between temperature and Ross river virus infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological evidence

Acta Trop. 2022 Jul:231:106454. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2022.106454. Epub 2022 Apr 9.

Authors

Yohannes Tefera Damtew¹, Michael Tong², Blesson Mathew Varghese³, Alana Hansen⁴, Jingwen Liu⁵, Keith Dear⁶, Ying Zhang⁷, Geoffrey Morgan⁸, Tim Driscoll⁹, Tony Capon¹⁰, Peng Bi¹¹

Affiliations

¹ School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia; College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O.BOX 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia. Electronic address: yohannestefera.damtew@adelaide.edu.au.
² School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia. Electronic address: michael.tong@adelaide.edu.au.
³ School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia. Electronic address: blesson.varghese@adelaide.edu.au.
⁴ School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia. Electronic address: alana.hansen@adelaide.edu.au.
⁵ School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia. Electronic address: jingwen.liu@adelaide.edu.au.
⁶ School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia. Electronic address: keith.dear@adelaide.edu.au.
⁷ School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia. Electronic address: ying.zhang@sydney.edu.au.
⁸ School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia. Electronic address: geoffrey.morgan@sydney.edu.au.
⁹ School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia. Electronic address: tim.driscoll@sydney.edu.au.
¹⁰ Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. Electronic address: tony.capon@monash.edu.
¹¹ School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia. Electronic address: peng.bi@adelaide.edu.au.

PMID: 35405101
DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2022.106454

Abstract

Ross River virus (RRV) infection is one of the emerging and prevalent arboviral diseases in Australia and the Pacific Islands. Although many studies have been conducted to establish the relationship between temperature and RRV infection, there has been no comprehensive review of the association so far. In this study, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of temperature on RRV transmission. We searched PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science with additional lateral searches from references. The quality and strength of evidence from the included studies were evaluated following the Navigation Guide framework. We have qualitatively synthesized the evidence and conducted a meta-analysis to pool the relative risks (RRs) of RRV infection per 1 °C increase in temperature. Subgroup analyses were performed by climate zones, temperature metrics, and lag periods. A total of 17 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which six were included in the meta-analysis The meta-analysis revealed that the overall RR for the association between temperature and the risk of RRV infection was 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.17). Subgroup analyses by climate zones showed an increase in RRV infection per 1 °C increase in temperature in humid subtropical and cold semi-arid climate zones. The overall quality of evidence was "moderate" and we rated the strength of evidence to be "limited", warranting additional evidence to reduce uncertainty. The results showed that the risk of RRV infection is positively associated with temperature. However, the risk varies across different climate zones, temperature metrics and lag periods. These findings indicate that future studies on the association between temperature and RRV infection should consider local and regional climate, socio-demographic, and environmental factors to explore vulnerability at local and regional levels.

Keywords: Alphavirus infection; Arboviral infections; Climate change; Emerging infectious disease; Meteorological factor; Ross river virus.

Publication types

Meta-Analysis
Systematic Review

MeSH terms

Alphavirus Infections* / epidemiology
Climate
Environment
Humans
Ross River virus*
Temperature