Harvest and density-dependent predation drive long-term population decline in a northern ungulate

Abstract

The relative effect of top-down versus bottom-up forces in regulating and limiting wildlife populations is an important theme in ecology. Untangling these effects is critical for a basic understanding of trophic dynamics and effective management. We examined the drivers of moose (Alces alces) population growth by integrating two independent sources of observations within a hierarchical Bayesian population model. We used one of the largest existing spatiotemporal data sets on ungulate population dynamics globally. We documented a 20% population decline over the period examined. There was negative density-dependent population growth of moose. Although we could not determine the mechanisms producing density-dependent suppression of population growth, the relatively low densities at which we documented moose populations suggested it could be due to density-dependent predation. Predation primarily limited population growth, except at low density, where it was regulating. After we simulated several harvest scenarios, it appeared that harvest was largely additive and likely contributed to population declines. Our results highlight how population dynamics are context dependent and vary strongly across gradients in climate, forest type, and predator abundance. These results help clarify long-standing questions in population ecology and highlight the complex relationships between natural and human-caused mortality in driving ungulate population dynamics.

Keywords: Alces alces; Bayesian population model; density dependence; harvest management; hierarchical model; hunting; moose; predation; top-down bottom-up; ungulate.