A Statistical Explanation of the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Jan R Magnus; Anatoly A Peresetsky

doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2022.840180

A Statistical Explanation of the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Front Psychol. 2022 Mar 25:13:840180. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2022.840180. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Jan R Magnus¹, Anatoly A Peresetsky²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Econometrics and Data Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
² Department of Applied Economics, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Higher School of Economics (HSE University), Moscow, Russia.

Abstract

An explanation of the Dunning-Kruger effect is provided which does not require any psychological explanation, because it is derived as a statistical artifact. This is achieved by specifying a simple statistical model which explicitly takes the (random) boundary constraints into account. The model fits the data almost perfectly.

Jel classification: A22; C24; C91; D84; D91; I21.

Keywords: Dunning–Kruger effect; boundary conditions; conditional expectation; tobit model; underestimation and overestimation.