Do spatiotemporal units matter for exploring the microgeographies of epidemics?

Appl Geogr. 2022 May:142:102692. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2022.102692. Epub 2022 Apr 5.

Abstract

From the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, studies on the microgeographies of epidemics have surged. However, studies have neglected the significant impact of multiple spatiotemporal units, such as report timestamps and spatial scales. This study examines three cities with localized COVID-19 resurgence after the first wave of the pandemic in mainland China to estimate the differential impact of spatiotemporal unit on exploring the influencing factors of epidemic spread at the microscale. The quantitative analysis results suggest that future spatial epidemiology research should give greater attention to the "symptom onset" timestamp instead of only the "confirmed" data and that "spatial transmission" should not be confused with "spatial sprawling" of epidemics, which can greatly reduce comparability between epidemiology studies. This research also highlights the importance of considering the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) and the uncertain geographic context problem (UGCoP) in future studies.

Keywords: COVID-19; Microgeography; Modifiable areal unit problem; Spatial epidemiology; Spatiotemporal units; Zero-inflated model.