Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century

Hosmay Lopez; Sang-Ki Lee; Dongmin Kim; Andrew T Wittenberg; Sang-Wook Yeh

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29519-7

Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century

Nat Commun. 2022 Apr 8;13(1):1915. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-29519-7.

Authors

Hosmay Lopez¹, Sang-Ki Lee², Dongmin Kim^{2

3}, Andrew T Wittenberg⁴, Sang-Wook Yeh⁵

Affiliations

¹ Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, Miami, FL, USA. Hosmay.lopez@noaa.gov.
² Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, Miami, FL, USA.
³ Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.
⁴ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA.
⁵ Department of Marine Science and Convergent Technology, Hanyang University, Ansan, Korea.

Abstract

Future changes in the seasonal evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during its onset and decay phases have received little attention by the research community. This work investigates the projected changes in the spatio-temporal evolution of El Niño events in the 21^st Century (21 C), using a multi-model ensemble of coupled general circulation models subjected to anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that El Niño is projected to (1) grow at a faster rate, (2) persist longer over the eastern and far eastern Pacific, and (3) have stronger and distinct remote impacts via teleconnections. These changes are attributable to significant changes in the tropical Pacific mean state, dominant ENSO feedback processes, and an increase in stochastic westerly wind burst forcing in the western equatorial Pacific, and may lead to more significant and persistent global impacts of El Niño in the future.

Grants and funding

NA19OAR4310282/United States Department of Commerce | NOAA | Climate Program Office (NOAA Climate Program Office)