Observed versus predicted mortality after isolated tricuspid valve surgery

J Card Surg. 2022 Jul;37(7):1959-1966. doi: 10.1111/jocs.16483. Epub 2022 Apr 6.

Abstract

Background: Aim of this study is to analyse the performances of Clinical Risk Score (CRS) and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE)-II in isolated tricuspid surgery.

Methods: Three hundred and eighty-three patients (54 ± 16 year; 54% female) were enrolled. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between the true positive fraction of test results and the false-positive fraction for a procedure.

Results: Considering the 30-day mortality the area under the curve was 0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-0.72) for EuroSCORE II and 0.7 (95% CI 0.56-0.84) for CRS-score. The ratio of expected/observed mortality showed underestimation when considering EuroSCORE-II (min. 0.46-max. 0.6). At multivariate analysis, the CRS score (p = .005) was predictor of late cardiac death.

Conclusion: We suggest using both scores to obtain a range of expected mortality. CRS to speculate on late survival.

Keywords: valve repair/replacement.

MeSH terms

  • Cardiac Surgical Procedures*
  • Female
  • Hospital Mortality
  • Humans
  • Male
  • ROC Curve
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Tricuspid Valve* / surgery