Lead (Pb) is a neurotoxicant that particularly harms young children. Urban environments are often plagued with elevated Pb in soils and dusts, posing a health exposure risk from inhalation and ingestion of these contaminated media. Thus, a better understanding of where to prioritize risk screening and intervention is paramount from a public health perspective. We have synthesized a large national data set of Pb concentrations in household dusts from across the United States (U.S.), part of a community science initiative called "DustSafe." Using these results, we have developed a straightforward logistic regression model that correctly predicts whether Pb is elevated (>80 ppm) or low (<80 ppm) in household dusts 75% of the time. Additionally, our model estimated 18% false negatives for elevated Pb, displaying that there was a low probability of elevated Pb in homes being misclassified. Our model uses only variables of approximate housing age and whether there is peeling paint in the interior of the home, illustrating how a simple and successful Pb predictive model can be generated if researchers ask the right screening questions. Scanning electron microscopy supports a common presence of Pb paint in several dust samples with elevated bulk Pb concentrations, which explains the predictive power of housing age and peeling paint in the model. This model was also implemented into an interactive mobile app that aims to increase community-wide participation with Pb household screening. The app will hopefully provide greater awareness of Pb risks and a highly efficient way to begin mitigation.
Keywords: community science; lead (Pb); pollution intervention; pollution remediation; predictive modeling; scanning electron microscopy (SEM).
© 2022 The Authors. GeoHealth published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.