Asymmetric effects of fine particulate matter and stringency policy on COVID-19 intensity

Int J Environ Health Res. 2023 Sep;33(9):837-849. doi: 10.1080/09603123.2022.2059452. Epub 2022 Mar 31.

Abstract

This study aims to examine the influence of environmental performance (PM2.5) on COVID-19 intensity . For this purpose, we employ the newly introduced Hidden Panel Cointegration test and Nonlinear Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. Results indicate the asymmetric linkages between PM2.5 and COVID-19 intensity, as the positive shock in PM2.5 raises the COVID-19 intensity by 21%, whereas the negative shock in PM2.5 decreases COVID-19 intensity by 12% in long-run. On the contrary, the positive shock in stringency measures decreases COVID-19 intensity by 42.8%, while the negative shock in stringency policy increases COVID-19 intensity by 66.7%. These findings imply that higher pollution increases the COVID-19 severity while higher stringency measures slow down people's movement and reduce COVID-19 intensity. However, a sudden negative shock in lockdown increases people's interaction, leading to a higher spread of the virus. These results suggest that governments should adopt stringent action plans to contain the transmissibility of COVID-19.

Keywords: Air pollution; COVID-19 pandemic; PM2.5; asymmetric effects; climate change; non-Linear panel ARDL.

MeSH terms

  • Air Pollutants* / analysis
  • Air Pollutants* / toxicity
  • Air Pollution* / analysis
  • COVID-19*
  • Communicable Disease Control
  • Environmental Pollution
  • Humans
  • Particulate Matter / analysis
  • Particulate Matter / toxicity

Substances

  • Particulate Matter
  • Air Pollutants