Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China under climate change scenarios

Wenliang Geng; Yanyan Li; Dongqi Sun; Bin Li; Pengyan Zhang; Hao Chang; Tianqi Rong; Ying Liu; Jingwen Shao; Zhenyue Liu; Huiru Zhu; Yuanyuan Lou; Qianqian Wang; Jinbing Zhang

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0262540

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China under climate change scenarios

PLoS One. 2022 Mar 31;17(3):e0262540. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262540. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for Middle and Lower Yellow River Region, College of Environment and Planning, Research Center of Regional Development and Planning, Institute of Agriculture and Rural Sustainable Development, Henan University, Kaifeng, China.
² Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijng, China.

Abstract

Climate is a dominant factor affecting the potential geographical distribution of species. Understanding the impact of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of species, which is of great significance to the exploitation, utilization, and protection of resources, as well as ecologically sustainable development. Betula platyphylla Suk. is one of the most widely distributed temperate deciduous tree species in East Asia and has important economic and ecological value. Based on 231 species distribution data points of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China and 37 bioclimatic, soil, and topography variables (with correlation coefficients < 0.75), the potential geographical distribution pattern of Betula platyphylla Suk. under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios at present and in the 2050s and 2070s was predicted using the MaxEnt model. We analyzed the main environmental variables affecting the distribution and change of suitable areas and compared the scope and change of suitable areas under different climate scenarios. This study found: (1) At present, the main suitable area for Betula platyphylla Suk. extends from northeastern to southwestern China, with the periphery area showing fragmented distribution. (2) Annual precipitation, precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the dominant environmental variables that affect the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. (3) The suitable area for Betula platyphylla Suk. is expected to expand under global warming scenarios. In recent years, due to the impact of diseases and insect infestation, and environmental damage, the natural Betula platyphylla Suk. forest in China has gradually narrowed. This study accurately predicted the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. under current and future climate change scenarios, which can provide the scientific basis for the cultivation, management, and sustainable utilization of Betula platyphylla Suk. resources.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Betula
China
Climate Change*
Ecosystem*

Supplementary concepts

Betula platyphylla

Grants and funding

This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 41601175, 41801362), the 2018 Young Backbone Teachers Foundation from Henan Province (grant number 2018GGJS019), the Program for Innovative Research Talent in University of Henan Province (grant number 20HASTIT017), Key R&D and extension projects in Henan Province in 2021 (agriculture and social development field) (grant number 202102310339), the Innovation Team Cultivation Project of The First- class Discipline in Henan University (grant number 2018YLTD16) all awarded to PZ. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.