Understanding how differences in intensity and frequency of hydrological disturbances affect the resistance and resilience of aquatic organisms is key to manage aquatic systems in a fast-changing world. Some aquatic insects have strategies that improve the permanence (resistance), while others use strategies that favor recolonization (resilience). Therefore, we carried out a manipulative experiment to understand the influence of functional characteristics of aquatic insects in their permanence and recolonization against hydrological disturbances in streams in the biodiversity hotspot of the Cerrado of Brazil. We placed 200 artificial substrates in five streams and submitted them to changing water flow regimes that differed both in frequency and intensity, and we observed the response of the aquatic community for 39 days. We used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to estimate the probabilities of permanence and recolonization of each life strategy group (nine groups). We observed that the most intense changes in the water flow tended to affect the permanence of almost all groups, but the intensity of this effect reduced over time. On the other hand, less frequent disturbances, regardless of intensity, tended to reduce the permanence of most groups of aquatic insects over time. The different effects of disturbance intensity may have been related to a greater recolonization capacity of some groups. The results we present are worrisome in a scenario of reduced riparian vegetation around streams and with the expectation of precipitation becoming more concentrated in shorter periods of time due to climate change in the Cerrado hotspot, reducing the occurrence of many groups of aquatic insects in their habitat, particularly those with traits associated with resistance against hydrological disturbance.
Keywords: Bayesian inference; Cerrado streams; functional trait; hierarchical model; resistance–resilience axis; space‐state design.
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