Retinal age gap as a predictive biomarker of future risk of Parkinson's disease

Abstract

Introduction: retinal age derived from fundus images using deep learning has been verified as a novel biomarker of ageing. We aim to investigate the association between retinal age gap (retinal age-chronological age) and incident Parkinson's disease (PD).

Methods: a deep learning (DL) model trained on 19,200 fundus images of 11,052 chronic disease-free participants was used to predict retinal age. Retinal age gap was generated by the trained DL model for the remaining 35,834 participants free of PD at the baseline assessment. Cox proportional hazards regression models were utilised to investigate the association between retinal age gap and incident PD. Multivariable logistic model was applied for prediction of 5-year PD risk and area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC) was used to estimate the predictive value.

Results: a total of 35,834 participants (56.7 ± 8.04 years, 55.7% female) free of PD at baseline were included in the present analysis. After adjustment of confounding factors, 1-year increase in retinal age gap was associated with a 10% increase in risk of PD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.20, P = 0.023). Compared with the lowest quartile of the retinal age gap, the risk of PD was significantly increased in the third and fourth quartiles (HR = 2.66, 95% CI: 1.13-6.22, P = 0.024; HR = 4.86, 95% CI: 1.59-14.8, P = 0.005, respectively). The predictive value of retinal age and established risk factors for 5-year PD risk were comparable (AUC = 0.708 and 0.717, P = 0.821).

Conclusion: retinal age gap demonstrated a potential for identifying individuals at a high risk of developing future PD.

Keywords: Parkinson’s disease; older people; prediction; retinal age.