The early assessment of harmful algal bloom risk in the East China Sea

Wenxiang Ding; Caiyun Zhang; Shaoping Shang

doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.113567

The early assessment of harmful algal bloom risk in the East China Sea

Mar Pollut Bull. 2022 May:178:113567. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.113567. Epub 2022 Mar 23.

Authors

Wenxiang Ding¹, Caiyun Zhang², Shaoping Shang³

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China.
² State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China; Key Laboratory of Underwater Acoustic Communication and Marine Information Technology (Xiamen University), Ministry of Education, Xiamen 361102, China. Electronic address: cyzhang@xmu.edu.cn.
³ Key Laboratory of Underwater Acoustic Communication and Marine Information Technology (Xiamen University), Ministry of Education, Xiamen 361102, China.

PMID: 35339060
DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.113567

Abstract

The East China Sea (ECS) is seriously impacted by harmful algal blooms (HABs). Therefore, early assessments of HAB risk in this area are extremely important. Using long-term historical HAB observation data and satellite-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs), we found that the annual number of HAB events was positively correlated with the mean March SST and negatively correlated with the SST change rate from March to July in nearshore waters (< 50 m). A simple method of HAB risk assessment was therefore proposed based on either March SST (threshold: 13 °C) or SST change rate (threshold: 3.6 °C/month). Validation against a k-means classification scheme indicated that the overall accuracy based on the March SST threshold was 85%, with a kappa coefficient of 0.69. The SST-based method facilitates the assessment of HAB risk in the ECS 1-2 months in advance, thus helping to reduce the damage caused by HABs.

Keywords: Early assessment of risks; East China Sea; Harmful algal blooms; Sea surface temperature.

MeSH terms

China
Harmful Algal Bloom*