Estimated date of delivery with electronic medical records by a hybrid GBDT-GRU model

Abstract

An accurate estimated date of delivery (EDD) helps pregnant women make adequate preparations before delivery and avoid the panic of parturition. EDD is normally derived from some formulates or estimated by doctors based on last menstruation period and ultrasound examinations. This study attempted to combine antenatal examinations and electronic medical records to develop a hybrid model based on Gradient Boosting Decision Tree and Gated Recurrent Unit (GBDT-GRU). Besides exploring the features that affect the EDD, GBDT-GRU model obtained the results by dynamic prediction of different stages. The mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination (R²) were used to compare the performance among the different prediction methods. In addition, we evaluated predictive performances of different prediction models by comparing the proportion of pregnant women under the error of different days. Experimental results showed that the performance indexes of hybrid GBDT-GRU model outperformed other prediction methods because it focuses on analyzing the time-series predictors of pregnancy. The results of this study are helpful for the development of guidelines for clinical delivery treatments, as it can assist clinicians in making correct decisions during obstetric examinations.