Scenario-based multi-objective optimization of reservoirs in silt-laden rivers: A case study in the Lower Yellow River

Abstract

Severe sedimentation often takes place in the river channel of silt-laden rivers, which is often mitigated through water-sediment regulation of the reservoirs. However, watersediment regulation is often competitive with other objectives of reservoirs, like water supply and hydropower generation; on the other hand, the reduction of channel sedimentation is often achieved at the expense of reservoir sedimentation, which reduces the service life of reservoirs. The Yellow River used to be the river with largest sediment transport over the world, but has experienced significant declination of runoff and sediment in recent years. This study presents a scenario-based multi-objective optimization operation model for the Xiaolangdi reservoir considering hydropower generation, reservoir sedimentation and channel sedimentation, with a generalized linear model coupled to calculate channel sedimentation based on runoff and sediment time series. A stochastic model that can reproduce both spatial correlations and low frequency attributes of the data series is adopted to generate two different scenarios based on different periods of observation and the performance of the multi-objective operation model under different scenarios is tested. The results indicate that: (1) the proposed optimization model can generate different schemes of reservoir operation and enhance operation performance; (2) the generalized linear model can well fit the relationship between daily channel sedimentation and runoff-sediment factors, but tends to overestimate the erosion efficiency after 2005; (3) the reservoir sedimentation and channel sedimentation show linear competitive relation, i.e., an average increase of 1 ton in reservoir sedimentation would result in declination of channel sedimentation from 0.455 to 0.488 tons, while the competitive relationship between hydropower generation and reservoir sedimentation is non-linear and weak; (4) the increase in the proportion of non-flood sediment load to the total sediment load makes it more difficult to prevent the reservoir from silting up.

Keywords: Generalized linear model; Multi-objective optimization; NSGA-III; Stochastic model; Xiaolangdi reservoir.