One-fourth of the global soil organic carbon (SOC) is stored in the boreal region, where climate change is predicted to be faster than the global average. Planetary warming is accelerated if climate change promotes SOC release into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. However, the soil carbon-climate feedbacks have been poorly confirmed by SOC measurements despite their importance on global climate. In this study, we used data collected as part of the Finnish arable soil monitoring program to study the influence of climate change, management practices, and historical land use on changes in SOC content using a Bayesian approach. Topsoil samples (n = 385) collected nationwide in 2009 and 2018 showed that SOC content has decreased at the rate of 0.35% year-1 on average. Based on the Bayesian modeling of our data, we can say with a certainty of 79%-91% that increase in summertime (May-Sep) temperature has resulted in SOC loss while increased precipitation has resulted in SOC loss with a certainty of 90%-97%. The exact percentages depend on the climate dataset used. Historical land use was found to influence the SOC content for decades after conversion to cropland. Former organic soils with a high SOC-to-fine-fraction ratio were prone to high SOC loss. In fields with long cultivation history (>100 years), however, the SOC-to-fine-fraction ratio had stabilized to approximately 0.03-0.04 and the changes in SOC content leveled off. Our results showed that, although arable SOC sequestration can be promoted by diversifying crop rotations and by cultivating perennial grasses, it is unlikely that improved management practices are sufficient to counterbalance the climate change-induced SOC losses in boreal conditions. This underlines the importance of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the acceleration of planetary warming.
Keywords: Bayesian analysis; boreal; climate change; cropping system; soil carbon.
© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.