Prognosis assessment model based on low serum calcium in patients with acute pulmonary thromboembolism

Abstract

Background and objective: The pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI) and simplified PESI (sPESI) are recommended to recognize patients with acute pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) with low prognosis risk, which is of great significance for treatment. This study aims to verify the influence of hypocalcaemia on the prognosis of patients with PTE and to establish a new prognosis assessment model.

Methods: This is an observational, multicentre study enrolling patients with PTE from February 2010 to June 2020 across 12 Chinese hospitals. Variables in PESI, serum calcium levels and patient survival status as of 5 July 2020 were collected. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity and Youden index were used to evaluate model performance.

Results: In the cohort of 4196 patients with PTE, independent associations existed between hypocalcaemia and mid- and long-term mortalities (p <0.05). By including hypocalcaemia, the new 30-day death risk prediction rule, Peking Union Medical College Hospital rule (PUMCH rule), showed significantly higher specificity (0.622 [0.582, 0.661]; p <0.001) than the PESI (0.514 [0.473, 0.554]) and sPESI (0.484 [0.444, 0.525]) and similar sensitivity (0.963 [0.810, 0.999]; p = 0.161) with PESI (0.889 [0.708, 0.976]) and sPESI (0.963 [0.810, 0.999]) in the internal validation cohort. Well-performing predictive validity was also verified on a constructed external validation cohort.

Conclusion: Hypocalcaemia is independently associated with mid- and long-term PTE mortalities. The PUMCH rule showed significantly higher specificity than the PESI and sPESI and similar sensitivity, which may be used as a prognostic assessment tool for patients with acute PTE.

Keywords: acute pulmonary thromboembolism; hypocalcaemia; prognosis assessment model.