Non-adoption decision of biogas in rural Pakistan: use of multinomial logit model

Abstract

In 2009, Pakistan introduced a subsidized biogas program to disseminate clean and affordable energy in rural areas. However, the adoption rate did not appear as expected. Therefore, the present study aims to examine the determinants behind the non-adoption of biogas digesters. Detailed information via a structured questionnaire was obtained from biogas adopters and non-adopters, and analyses were performed in two levels. Initially, the study used the multinomial logit regression to elicit the non-adoption behavior. Results depicted family size, risk aversion, cook education (women), kitchen (inside the home), home structure, and non-availability of inputs as significant factors behind non-adoption. Detailed analysis also revealed that the factors like the age of household head, area of the house, cook education (women), location of the kitchen (inside the home), and the distance of the house to the bus stop (minutes) lead towards the potential adoption of biogas. The study also investigated the potential factors behind the long-term sustainability of biogas digesters with the help of binary logit. The results depicted that the kitchen's location (inside the house), cook education (women), training, and subsidy significantly and positively impact the biogas plant's probability of being functional. Based on these results, the study suggested that policymakers increase women's education in rural areas, provide a subsidy to reduce costs and risk, and arrange training for adopters.

Keywords: Biogas; Education; Multinomial logit; Non-adoption decision; Risk-aversion; Subsidy.