New drug development guarantees a very high return on success, but the success rate is extremely low. Pharmaceutical companies have attempted to use various strategies to increase the success rate of drug development, but this goal has been difficult to achieve. In this study, we developed a model that can guide effective decision-making at the planning stage of new drug development by leveraging machine learning. The Drug Development Recommendation (DDR) model, we present here, is a hybrid model for recommending and/or predicting drug groups suitable for development by individual pharmaceutical companies. It combines association rule learning, collaborative filtering, and content-based filtering approaches for enterprise-customized recommendations. In the case of content-based filtering applying a random forest classification algorithm, the accuracy and area under curve were 78% and 0.74, respectively. In particular, the DDR model was applied to predict the success probability of companies developing Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. It was demonstrated that the higher the predicted score from the DDR model, the more progress in the clinical phase of the COVID-19 vaccine development. Although our approach has limitations that should be improved, it makes scientific as well as industrial contributions in that the DDR model can support rational decision-making prior to initiating drug development by considering not only technical aspects but also company-related variables.
Keywords: COVID-19 vaccine development prediction; Decision support model; Drug development recommendation; Hybrid recommender system; Pharmaceutical portfolio management.
© 2022 The Authors.