Use of Bayesian networks in forensic soil casework

Abstract

Forensic soil comparisons can be of high evidential value in a forensic case, but become complex when multiple methods and factors are considered. Bayesian networks are well suited to support forensic practitioners in complex casework. This study discusses the structure of a Bayesian network, elaborates on the in- and output data and evaluates two examples, one using source level propositions and one using activity level propositions. These examples can be applied as a template to construct a case specific network and can be used to assess sensitivity of the target output to different factors and identify avenues for research.

Keywords: Activity level; Bayesian network; Distance measure; Elemental composition; Evaluate propositions; Palynology; Soil comparison; Source level.