Assessing the future climate change, land use change, and abstraction impacts on groundwater resources in the Tak Special Economic Zone, Thailand

Parichat Pinsri; Sangam Shrestha; Saurav Kc; S Mohanasundaram; Salvatore G P Virdis; Thi Phuoc Lai Nguyen; Winai Chaowiwat

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2022.113026

Assessing the future climate change, land use change, and abstraction impacts on groundwater resources in the Tak Special Economic Zone, Thailand

Environ Res. 2022 Aug:211:113026. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113026. Epub 2022 Mar 8.

Authors

Parichat Pinsri¹, Sangam Shrestha², Saurav Kc¹, S Mohanasundaram¹, Salvatore G P Virdis¹, Thi Phuoc Lai Nguyen³, Winai Chaowiwat⁴

Affiliations

¹ School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathum Thani, 12120, Thailand.
² School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathum Thani, 12120, Thailand; Stockholm Environment Institute, Asia Center, Chulalongkorn Soi 64, Phayathai Road, Pathumwan, Bangkok, 1033, Thailand. Electronic address: sangam@ait.asia.
³ School of Environment, Resources and Development Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathum Thani, 12120, Thailand.
⁴ Hydro - Informatics Institute (HII), 901 Ngam Wong Wan Road, Lat Yao, Chatuchak, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand.

PMID: 35276195
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113026

Abstract

Groundwater is an important source of water supply in the Tak Special Economic Zone of Thailand. However, groundwater is under stress from climate change, land use change, and an increase in abstraction, affecting the groundwater level and its sustainability. Therefore, this study analyses the impact of these combined stresses on groundwater resources in the near, mid, and far future. Three Global Climate Models are used to project the future climate under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. According to the results, both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to show similar increasing trends for both scenarios, with a rise of approximately 1 (1.5), 2 (3), and 3 (5) °C expected for SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) in each consecutive period. Annual rainfall is expected to continually increase in the future, with around 1500-1600 mm in rainfall (11ꟷ5.43% higher). Land use change is predicted for two scenarios: business as usual (BU) and rapid urbanisation (RU). The forest area is expected to increase to 30% (35%) coverage in 2090 for BU (RU) while agriculture is likely to reduce to 60% (50%) with the urban area increasing to 2.4% (7%). Water demand is predicted to increase in all future scenarios. The SWAT model is used to project recharge, which is likely to increase by 10-20% over time. The highest increase is predicted in the far future under SSP2 and RU scenarios. MODFLOW was used to project future groundwater resources, but due to the lack of consistent data, the time scale is reduced to yearly simulation. The results reveal that the groundwater level is expected to increase in the central part (urban area) of the study area and decrease along the boundary (agricultural area) of the aquifer. This research can aid policymakers and decision-makers in understanding the impact of multiple stressors and formulating adaptation strategies to manage groundwater resources in special economic zones.

Keywords: Groundwater; MODFLOW; Multiple stresses; SWAT; Shared socioeconomic pathway; Special economic zone.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Climate Change*
Groundwater*
Thailand
Urbanization
Water Supply