Understanding the genetic structure adopted by natural populations and its relation to environmental adaptation is critical for the success of restoration programs. We evaluated the genetic structure and temporal environmental niche dynamics of blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis) in 48 populations. The genetic evaluation was performed through amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) molecular markers. The maximum entropy method was used to model the past, present, and future environmental niches of the three clusters derived from the genetic analysis. The environmental niches of the three genetic clusters showed dynamic overlaps and isolations during the last interglacial and glacial maximum. The paleoclimatic events, which occurred during those periods, may have reinforced genetic exchange among populations and affected their genetic structure. Genetic clusters also presented different environmental niches in the present. Thus, they can be considered as three distinct ecotypes and restoration programs must be carried out using local germplasm from each environmental niche to increase their chance of success. Based on the environmental niches of the genetic clusters, changes are expected in the near and mid-century future. Therefore, climate change must be considered for species conservation management and future restoration programs.
Keywords: MaxEnt; environmental niche modeling; genetic diversity; molecular markers; restoration.