(1) Background: we proposed an integrated strategy to support clinical allocation of nasopharyngeal patients between proton and photon radiotherapy. (2) Methods: intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) plans were optimized for 50 consecutive nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients treated with volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), and differences in dose and normal tissue complication probability (ΔNTCPx-p) for 16 models were calculated. Patient eligibility for IMPT was assessed using a model-based selection (MBS) strategy following the results for 7/16 models describing the most clinically relevant endpoints, applying a model-specific ΔNTCPx-p threshold (15% to 5% depending on the severity of the complication) and a composite threshold (35%). In addition, a comprehensive toxicity score (CTS) was defined as the weighted sum of all 16 ΔNTCPx-p, where weights follow a clinical rationale. (3) Results: Dose deviations were in favor of IMPT (ΔDmean ≥ 14% for cord, esophagus, brainstem, and glottic larynx). The risk of toxicity significantly decreased for xerostomia (-12.5%), brain necrosis (-2.3%), mucositis (-3.2%), tinnitus (-8.6%), hypothyroidism (-9.3%), and trismus (-5.4%). There were 40% of the patients that resulted as eligible for IMPT, with a greater advantage for T3-T4 staging. Significantly different CTS were observed in patients qualifying for IMPT. (4) Conclusions: The MBS strategy successfully drives the clinical identification of NPC patients, who are most likely to benefit from IMPT. CTS summarizes well the expected global gain.
Keywords: NTCP; model-based selection; nasopharyngeal cancer; proton therapy.