Background and aims: The high risk for severe shunting-related post-interventional complications demands a stringent selection of candidates for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). We aimed to develop a simple and reliable tool to accurately predict early post-TIPS mortality.
Methods: 144 cases of TIPS implantation were retrospectively analysed. Using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis of factors predicting mortality within 90 days after TIPS, a score integrating urea, international normalized ratio (INR) and bilirubin was developed. The Modified TIPS-Score (MOTS) ranges from 0 to 3 points: INR >1.6, urea >71 mg/dl and bilirubin >2.2 mg/dl account for one point each. Additionally, MOTS was tested in an external validation cohort (n = 187) and its performance was compared to existing models.
Results: Modified TIPS-Score achieved a significant prognostic discrimination reflected by 90-day mortality of 8% in patients with MOTS 0-1 and 60% in patients with MOTS 2-3 (p < .001). Predictive performance (area under the curve) of MOTS was accurate (c = 0.845 [0.73-0.96], p < .001), also in patients with renal insufficiency (c = 0.830 [0.64-1.00], p = .02) and in patients with refractory ascites (c = 0.949 [0.88-1.00], p < .001), which are subgroups with particular room for improvement of post-TIPS mortality prediction. The results were reproducible in the validation cohort.
Conclusions: Modified TIPS-Score is a novel, practicable tool to predict post-TIPS mortality, that can significantly simplify clinical decision making. Its practical applicability should be further investigated.
Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03459378.
Keywords: hepatic encephalopathy; mortality; prediction; renal insufficiency; risk; transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt.
© 2022 The Authors. Liver International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.