Optimization of COVID-19 vaccination and the role of individuals with a high number of contacts: A model based approach

PLoS One. 2022 Mar 8;17(3):e0262433. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262433. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

We report strong evidence of the importance of contact hubs (or superspreaders) in mitigating the current COVID-19 pandemic. Contact hubs have a much larger number of contacts than the average in the population, and play a key role on the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. By using an age-structures compartmental SEIAHRV (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected symptomatic, Asymptomatic, Hospitalized, Recovered, Vaccinated) model, calibrated from available demographic and COVID-19 incidence, and considering separately those individuals with a much greater number of contacts than the average in the population, we show that carefully choosing who will compose the first group to be vaccinated can impact positively the total death toll and the demand for health services. This is even more relevant in countries with a lack of basic resources for proper vaccination and a significant reduction in social isolation. In order to demonstrate our approach we show the effect of hypothetical vaccination scenarios in two countries of very different scales and mitigation policies, Brazil and Portugal.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Brazil
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control*
  • COVID-19 / transmission
  • COVID-19 / virology
  • COVID-19 Vaccines / administration & dosage*
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Portugal
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification
  • Vaccination
  • Vaccine Efficacy

Substances

  • COVID-19 Vaccines

Grants and funding

This work received financial support from the National Council of Technological and Scientific 242 Development - CNPq (grant numbers 302449/2019-1 FAS, 309617/2020-0 ACGA, 243 305291/2018-1 MAM), Bahia State Research Support Foundation (BOL0723/2017 AJAC) 244 (Brazil) and i3N (grant numbers UIDB/50025/2020 & UIDP/50025/2020) - Fundação para a 245 Ciência e Tecnologia/MEC (Portugal). The funders had no role in study design, data collection 246 and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.