Real-time safety analysis for expressways considering the heterogeneity of different segment types

Abstract

Introduction: Studies have proven that the crash possibility and crash type are not the same among different expressway segment types. However, few studies have conducted real-time safety analysis considering different segment types. This study aimed to explore the crash mechanism's heterogeneity for different segment types (i.e., merge, diverge, weaving, and basic segments).

Method: To enable in-depth exploration, this study used detailed traffic data, which were 0-10 min before crash, at 1-min intervals, and from five detectors of both the upstream and downstream to the target segment. This study analyzed the crash mechanism's heterogeneity from the following aspects: crash characteristics, significant crash contributing variables, and variables' importance. Based on this, a variables selection method was proposed to solve the huge dimension scale in modeling. Then, a nested logit model was built, which could consider the crash mechanism's heterogeneity, to quantitatively analyze the impact of crash contributing factors on the crash risk.

Results: The results revealed that there are statistically significant differences in crash characteristics between each segment type. Additionally, the sources of most crash contributing factors were found to be significantly different in the spatial-temporal dimension between each segment type. Moreover, this study found that the weather parameter, indicating pavement's wet condition, had a similar effect on crash risk between different segment types. However, the geometry and traffic parameters had significantly different impacts between different segment types. Moreover, when the number of target segments' upstream ramps increases or when the distance between ramps and the target segment decreases, the crash risk would increase. Practical Applications: This study can be applied in the intelligent transportation system to improve traffic safety performance, especially in active traffic management systems.

Keywords: 1-min interval traffic data; Crash mechanism’s heterogeneity; Expressway; Intelligent transportation system (ITS); Nested logit model; Real-time safety analysis.