Background: Our study aimed to explore the prognostic value of the aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio index (APRI) and to develop a new nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who experience late recurrence after radiofrequency ablation (RFA). To date, no study has explored the value of APRI for assessing the late recurrence of HCC after RFA.
Materials and methods: The prognostic value of APRI was evaluated and validated in our multicenter retrospective analysis. A total of 466 HCC patients undergoing RFA were reviewed as a training cohort, and 234 HCC patients were included in the external validation cohort. The nomogram was built based on significant prognostic factors in a multivariate analysis and validated in the external validation cohort.
Results: The cutoff APRI score was 0.78, and it appropriately discriminated between low- and high-risk groups for late recurrence in HCC patients. The cumulative recurrence-free survival rates of the low-risk group were significantly higher than those of the high-risk group (p < 0.001), according to the Kaplan-Meier curves. Late recurrence in HCC patients after RFA was associated with APRI, sex and multiple tumors. The nomogram based on potential risk factors (APRI score, sex and multiple tumors) as indicated by multivariate Cox regression analysis showed good discrimination and calibration in the training and external verification groups.
Conclusions: The APRI score is a feasible independent prognostic factor for the late recurrence of HCC after RFA. The proposed nomogram could aid clinicians in following disease progression and providing tailored therapy for patients.
Keywords: Hepatocellular carcinoma; aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index; late recurrence; nomogram; radiofrequency ablation.