Prediction of distant metastasis and survival prediction of gastric cancer patients with metastasis to the liver, lung, bone, and brain: research based on the SEER database

Zikai Lin; Runchen Wang; Youtao Zhou; Qixia Wang; Cui-Yan Yang; Bo-Cun Hao; Chuan-Feng Ke

doi:10.21037/atm-21-6295

Prediction of distant metastasis and survival prediction of gastric cancer patients with metastasis to the liver, lung, bone, and brain: research based on the SEER database

Ann Transl Med. 2022 Jan;10(1):16. doi: 10.21037/atm-21-6295.

Authors

Zikai Lin^#^{1

2}, Runchen Wang^#^{1

2}, Youtao Zhou^#^{1

3}, Qixia Wang^{1

2}, Cui-Yan Yang¹, Bo-Cun Hao¹, Chuan-Feng Ke¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
² Nanshan School, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
³ The First Clinical Medical School of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.

^# Contributed equally.

Abstract

Background: Gastric cancer (GC) is a globally important disease. It is the 5th most common malignancy and the 4th most common cause of death from cancer in the world. Patients with GC are often at an advanced stage when they are first diagnosed, and their overall prognosis is poor due to locally advanced and distant metastasis. This study sought to establish a predictive model of GC distant metastasis and survival that can be used to guide individualized treatment.

Methods: Patients diagnosed with GC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database were enrolled in the study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk and prognostic factors for GC patients with distant metastasis. The factors were then used to construct nomograms to predict the probability of distant metastasis and the survival time of GC patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analyses were used to verify the prediction ability of the nomograms.

Results: We established a comprehensive nomogram to predict the survival time of GC patients and 4 nomograms to predict distant metastasis. Nomograms could help oncologists to formulate treatment strategies and provide hospice care under an overall management model.

Conclusions: Establishing a prediction model for distant metastasis and the survival of GC patients is of great clinical significance. The prediction of distant metastasis could help clinicians to make individualized assessments of patients and formulate individualized examination measures. Survival prediction models could help oncologists to formulate good treatment strategies and provide hospice care.

Keywords: Gastric cancer (GC); decision curve analysis (DCA); distant metastasis; nomogram; overall survival (OS).