A sufficient amount of water is required at the surface to develop water oceans. A significant fraction of water, however, remains in the mantle during magma ocean solidification, and thus the existence of water oceans is not guaranteed even for exoplanets located in the habitable zone. To discuss the likelihood of ocean formation, we built two models to predict the rate of mantle degassing during the magma ocean stage and the subsequent solid-state convection stage. We find that planets with low H2O/CO2 ratios would not have a sufficient amount of surface water to develop water oceans immediately after magma ocean solidification, and the majority of the water inventory would be retained in the mantle during their subsequent evolution regardless of planetary size. This is because oceanless planets are likely to operate under stagnant lid convection, and for such planets, dehydration stiffening of the depleted lithospheric mantle would limit the rate of mantle degassing. In contrast, a significant fraction of CO2 would already be degassed during magma ocean solidification. With a strong greenhouse effect, all surface water would exist as vapor, and water oceans may be absent throughout planetary evolution. Volatile concentrations in the bulk silicate Earth are close to the threshold amount for ocean formation, so if Venus shared similar concentrations, small differences in solar radiation may explain the divergent evolutionary paths of Earth and Venus.
Keywords: Habitability; Magma ocean; Ocean formation.