Climatic factors associated with economic determinants significantly affect the spread of COVID-19 in tropical Brazil

David Prata; Waldecy Rodrigues; Daniela Mascarenhas de Queiroz Trevisan; Wainesten Camargo; Humberto Frizzera; Rafael Carvalho; Gentil Barbosa; Clayton Alvares; Marina F Moreira; Paulo H De Souza Bermejo

doi:10.1016/j.onehlt.2022.100375

Climatic factors associated with economic determinants significantly affect the spread of COVID-19 in tropical Brazil

One Health. 2022 Jun:14:100375. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2022.100375. Epub 2022 Feb 19.

Affiliations

¹ Program of Computational Modelling, Federal University of Tocantins, Palmas, TO, Brazil.
² Unesp, Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas, Botucatu 18610-034, Brazil.
³ Research and Development Center for Public Sector Excellence and Transformation (NExT) of the Department of Administration, University of Brasilia, Brazil.

Abstract

Objective: This study investigates the spatial differences in the occurrence of COVID-19 in Brazilian Tropical Zone and its relationship with climatic, demographic, and economic factors based on data from February 2020 to May 2021.

Methods: A Linear Regression Model with the GDP per capita, demographic density and climatic factors from 5.534 Brazilian cities with (sub)tropical climate was designed and used to explain the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil.

Main results: The model shows evidence that economic, demographic and climate factors maintain a relationship with the variation in the number of cases of COVID-19. The Köppen climate classification defines climatic regions by rainfall and temperature. Some studies have shown an association between temperature and humidity and the survival of SARS-CoV-2. In this cohort study, Brazilian cities located in tropical regions without a dry season (monthly rainfall > 60 mm) showed a greater prevalence than in cities located in tropical regions with a dry season (some monthly rainfall < 60 mm).

Conclusion: Empirical evidence shows that the Brazil's tropical-climate cities differ in the number (contamination rate) of COVID-19 cases, mainly because of humidity. This study aims to alert the research community and public policy-makers to the trade-off between temperature and humidity for the stability of SARS-COV-2, and the implications for the spread of the virus in tropical climate zones.

Keywords: Brazilian tropical zone; COVID-19; Climate; Demographic; Economic; SARS-CoV-2.