Background: Thrombocytopenia is a marker of severity in dengue, and its resolution predicts clinical improvement. The objective was to evaluate mean platelet volume (MPV) trajectories as a predictor of platelet count (PC) recovery in dengue patients.
Methods: An observational, longitudinal and analytical study was conducted at Fundación Valle del Lili (Cali, Colombia). Patients diagnosed with dengue during 2016-2020 were included. The association between PC and the covariates was evaluated using simple linear, quadratic and non-parametric spline smoothing regression models. A longitudinal linear mixed model was adjusted and then validated for PC measurements.
Results: A total of 71 patients were included. The median age was 27 y, 38.5% were women and half had dengue with warning signs. A statistically significant PC decrease was observed when MPV was 13.87 fL and 4.46 d from the onset of symptoms, while PC displayed a significant constant increase with neutrophils count. Then, PC recovery was achieved with an MPV of 13.58 fL, 4.5 d from the onset of symptoms and a minimum neutrophils count of 150 μL.
Conclusion: MPV may be a predictor of PC recovery in dengue patients. PC recovery is expected when a patient has an MPV of 13.58 fL, an onset time of 4.5 d and a neutrophils count of 150 μL.
Keywords: dengue; linear mixed model; mean platelet volume; platelet count; thrombocytopenia.
© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.