Underlying pathophysiological mechanisms drive excessive clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors, causing metabolic syndrome (MetS). MetS status may transform as adolescents transition to young adulthood. This study investigated the latent clustering structure and its stability for MetS during adolescence, and assessed the anthropometric and clinical metabolic determinants for MetS transformation. A community-based representative adolescent cohort (n = 1516) was evaluated for MetS using four diagnostic criteria, and was followed for 2.2 years to identify new-onset MetS. The clustering structure underlying cardiometabolic parameters was stable across adolescence; both comprised a fat-blood pressure (BP)-glucose three-factor structure (total variance explained: 68.8% and 69.7% at baseline and follow-up, respectively). Among adolescents with MetS-negative at baseline, 3.2-4.4% had incident MetS after 2.2 years. Among adolescents with MetS-positive at baseline, 52.0-61.9% experienced MetS remission, and 38.1-48.0% experienced MetS persistence. Increased systolic BP (SBP) was associated with a high MetS incidence risk, while decreased levels of SBP and glucose were associated with MetS remission. Compared with adolescents with a normal metabolic status at baseline, those with an initial abdominal obesity and increased triglycerides level had a 15.0- and 5.7-fold greater risk for persistent abnormality, respectively. Abdominal obesity and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol are two abnormal MetS components that highly persist during adolescence, and are the intervention targets for reducing the future risk of cardiometabolic disorders.
Keywords: adolescent; anthropometric risk factors; cardiometabolic risk factor; cardiovascular risk; latent clustering structure; metabolic syndrome; stability and transformation.