Background: One of the most common causes of heart failure is dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). In DCM, the mortality risk is high and reaches approximately 20% in 5 years. A patient's prognosis should be established for appropriate HF management. However, so far, no validated tools have been available for the DCM population.
Methods: The study population consisted of 735 DCM patients: 406 from the derivation cohort (previously described) and 329 from the validation cohort (from 2009 to 2020, with outcome data after a mean of 42 months). For each DCM patient, the individual mortality risk was calculated based on the Krakow DCM Risk Score.
Results: During follow-up, 49 (15%) patients of the validation cohort died. They had shown significantly higher calculated 1-to-5-year mortality risks. The Krakow DCM Risk Score yielded good discrimination in terms of overall mortality risk, with an AUC of 0.704-0.765. Based on a 2-year mortality risk, patients were divided into non-high (≤6%) and high (>6%) mortality risk groups. The observed mortality rates were 8.3% (n = 44) vs. 42.6% (n = 75), respectively (HR 3.37; 95%CI 1.88-6.05; p < 0.0001).
Conclusions: The Krakow DCM Risk Score was found to have good predictive accuracy. The 2-year mortality risk > 6% has good discrimination for the identification of high-risk patients and can be applied in everyday practice.
Keywords: Krakow DCM Risk Score; dilated cardiomyopathy; mortality risk; non-ischemic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; prognosis; prognostic model.