To explore the potential relationship between environmental and socioeconomic factors and the risk of gastric cancer (GC) in the Huai River Basin, the GC incidence rate (GIR) and GC mortality rate (GMR) data from 2014 to 2018 in 14 counties of the Huai River Basin were collected from the Chinese Cancer Registration Annual Report. Environmental and socioeconomic parameters were collected through the Statistical Yearbook. The 14 counties were classified into three groups with low, moderate, and high risk of GC according to the point density of environmental factors (PDF) and index of socioeconomic factors (ISF). Significant differences in GIR and GMR were found among the counties with PDF (χ2 = 21.36, p < 0.01) and ISF (χ2 = 11.37, p < 0.05) levels. Meanwhile, significant differences in mortality rate were observed among counties with different PDF (χ2 = 11.25, p < 0.01) and ISF (χ2 = 18.74, p < 0.01), and the results showed that the ISF and PDF were increased while the GIR and GMR were decreased. Meanwhile, there was a lag effect between them, and we used two models to explore the lag effects between ISF, PDF and GIR and GMR; the coefficient influence between the ISF lag phase and GIR was -2.9768, and the coefficient influence between PDF and the lag phase on the GIR was -0.9332, and there were both significant impact when there was a probability of more than 95%. The results showed that the higher the ISF and PDF that lags in one stage, the more GIR was reduced, while the impact of the ISF and PDF on lag stage on mortality was not obvious. We used differential GMM to test the results, and also research results were relatively robust. Overall, GIR and GMR decreased with increasing point density of environmental factors and index of socioeconomic factors.
Keywords: gastric cancer; index of socioeconomic factors; point density of environmental factors.