The association between the dynamics of COVID-19, related measures, and daytime population in Tokyo

Takenori Yamauchi; Shouhei Takeuchi; Mitsuo Uchida; Masaya Saito; Akatsuki Kokaze

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-06716-4

The association between the dynamics of COVID-19, related measures, and daytime population in Tokyo

Sci Rep. 2022 Feb 23;12(1):3063. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-06716-4.

Authors

Takenori Yamauchi¹, Shouhei Takeuchi², Mitsuo Uchida³, Masaya Saito⁴, Akatsuki Kokaze⁵

Affiliations

¹ Department of Hygiene, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Showa University, Tokyo, Japan. yamauchi-t@med.showa-u.ac.jp.
² Department of Nutrition Science, Faculty of Nursing and Nutrition, University of Nagasaki, Nagasaki, Japan.
³ Department of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Gunma University, Gunma, Japan.
⁴ Department of Information Security, Faculty of Information Systems, University of Nagasaki, Nagasaki, Japan.
⁵ Department of Hygiene, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Showa University, Tokyo, Japan.

Abstract

In Japan, a novel coronavirus has been prevalent since January 2020. The Japanese and local governments have implemented various measures, including declaring a state of emergency, according to the epidemic situation in each region. This study estimated the effective reproduction number (R_t) using the number of confirmed positive cases and positivity rates in Tokyo and examined the association between R_t and the rate of increase/decrease in the number of people across 12 sites. In Tokyo, there were five waves in which R_t was persistently estimated as approximately 1.0. The fourth and fifth waves started under the declaration of the state of emergency and coincided with an increase in the number of people. However, the contribution of the number of people to R_t was inconsistent, even when the number of people was of the same magnitude. A possible reason for this is difference in the countermeasures content, as the impact of vaccination was considered to be minor at the time. Where vaccination is insufficient, the wave is terminated by controlling the number of people leaving their homes. It is suggested that infection could be controlled more efficiently, depending on the content of the countermeasures.

MeSH terms

COVID-19*